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Russia’s capture of the towns of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, an important victory for Moscow’s campaign to conquer eastern Ukraine, demonstrates the success of the Russian army’s crushing strategy based on firepower superior and progressive advances.

It also raises serious questions about how long either side can go on like this, especially the beaten and heavily outgunned Ukrainian forces, forced to rely on raw recruits and suffering heavy casualties, and the mental strain of combat. , retreat and constant Russian bombardment.

The Russian invasion has also taken its toll on its own forces, but they continue their slow progress, and with the capture of Lysychansk this weekend, they have taken control of the entirety of Luhansk province, the putting them in a position to push towards Ukraine. -detained cities in Donetsk province.

The devastating strategy, relying heavily on long-range artillery, suits the flat terrain and shorter Russian supply lines to the east, but might not work elsewhere. And it’s unclear how far President Vladimir V. Putin intends to push the offensive, or how many more casualties of men and material his army can absorb without needing a long pause to rebuild.

Ukrainian officials say their goal is to inflict maximum pain on the Russians by forcing them to fight for the cities, as happened in Sievierodonetsk and to a lesser extent Lysychansk, but both cities fell, and now there are growing doubts about this approach. The strategy also divides Ukrainian troops, some of whom believe that trying to hold cities is futile.

“For me, human life is more important than the name of Lysychansk,” said Lt. Col. Yurii Bereza, 52, battalion commander of the Ukrainian National Guard, days before the Ukrainians decided to abandon the city ​​rather than fighting block by bloody block. as they had done in neighboring Sievierodonetsk.

Volodymyr, a volunteer soldier who was one of the last members of his unit to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk in June, said he lost more than half of his company of around 100 soldiers during the battle. He summed up the battle with an expletive.

“What accompaniment? He asked. “There was no support.”

He, however, nodded to the Ukrainian T-80 tank across the street, saying the tank units came to the aid of the soldiers while the relief artillery did not.

At the start of the war, Russian forces attempting to quickly capture Kyiv, the capital, deployed their troops and armored columns, leaving them with little support, and suffered a crushing defeat from the Ukrainians. Moscow then focused on the industrial, mineral-rich Donbass region to the east – Lugansk and Donetsk – and changed its strategy.

Now Russian troops rarely advance without overwhelming support, often in the form of heavy artillery bombardment – ​​even if that means what Moscow captures is in ruins. Ukrainian soldiers say the shelling lasted about five days before Russian forces began testing Ukrainian lines with infantry and tanks.

The fighting has clearly exhausted both sides. Ukrainian officials estimated that their forces suffered hundreds of casualties a day; Western intelligence places Russian dead and wounded on a similar level.

Ukrainian forces are increasingly relying on less trained troops such as those from the Territorial Defense Forces and National Guard to supplement depleted units on the front lines. And Russia has turned to reinforcements such as Wagner’s paramilitary units, pro-Moscow Chechen forces and separatist fighters from Luhansk and Donetsk to bolster their casualties.

On Monday, Mr Putin ordered the troops involved in the capture of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk to rest and “increase their combat capabilities” while other Russian formations continue to fight.

Both sides have played down reports of faltering morale in their ranks, sometimes posting motivational videos on social media to counter the idea that anyone in the trenches is burnt out. And though the casualties wear them down, Ukrainian troops show a willingness to keep fighting, whatever the cost.

“We will return there,” Volodymyr said, after pulling out of Sievierodonetsk. “This is our land. This is how it is.”

But this method of combat – artillery warfare – can produce intense psychological trauma, just like in World War I, the conflict that gave rise to the term “shell shock”. Ukrainian commanders, particularly of replacement units, fear that some of their soldiers will suffer from stress, in addition to the risk of being injured or killed by enemy fire.

“During the artillery shelling, all you can do is stay under cover and wait for the shelling to end,” said Volodymyr, a Ukrainian platoon commander who recently left the front in Donbass. “Some people suffer from mental disorders because of these bombardments. They turn out to be psychologically unprepared for anything they encounter.

Volodymyr, who declined to give his surname for security reasons, said one person was killed in his platoon and two had to leave the front line due to mental trauma.

More than four months into the war, Ukrainians remain angry and defiant. But among civilians – millions of them displaced, out of work and living in fear, some lacking food, water and electricity – the mood is increasingly grim. As the Russians gain ground and casualties mount, with no end in sight, some Ukrainians accuse their government of downplaying the challenges ahead in a bid to boost morale.

Yulia Fedotovskyh, 32, a public relations officer in Kyiv, said that at the start of the war, scrolling through social media images of dead Russian soldiers helped her feel safer. Now, she says, she’s just trying to avoid the news.

“I realize and have accepted that I can die at any time, and so I just live my life,” she said.

In an early sign of violence to come, Russian forces have stepped up their shelling of population centers near the front lines in recent days.

At least six people were killed in Sloviansk on Sunday and more than a dozen were injured by Russian rockets, Ukrainian authorities said. In a Facebook post, Vadym Lyakh, the mayor of Sloviansk, said it was the most severe shelling of the city since the Russian invasion began on February 24. Regional military administration chief Pavlo Kyrylenko said in a message on the Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces had killed nine civilians in Donetsk province in the past 24 hours.

In his nightly video address, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the Russians “have now accumulated their greatest firepower in the Donbass, and they can use tens of thousands of artillery shells every day on a section from the front”.

But he swore once more to take back the lost territory. “We will come back,” he said, “thanks to our tactics, thanks to the increased supply of modern weapons.”

In the south, near the Russian-held port city of Kherson, Ukrainian forces have made a series of small gains over the past month. And although military analysts say these additional victories are a sign of a broader counteroffensive to come, Ukrainian military officers have downplayed the significance of the fighting and acknowledged that the focus is on the east.

Kyiv has frequently called for more arms and ammunition supplied by the West. And while some have arrived at the front lines and have been successful in combat, particularly the recently arrived HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system from the United States, any longer-term Ukrainian success on the battlefield would require much more.

“There is a problem with the ammunition,” Colonel Bereza said. “For example, for our single shot, they would fire 50 shots. How can you fight this?

But he said the situation had improved somewhat and that “we are waiting for help from the West with artillery, with machines”.

Ammunition shortages in the Ukrainian military, particularly for its Soviet-era long-range artillery pieces, have left its forces shifting from these weapons to newer, Western-supplied equipment that requires a extensive training. The United States and its allies are providing this training outside of Ukraine, but the pace is not keeping up with demand, and some of those trained have been killed or injured.

A Ukrainian officer who works with US-supplied M777 howitzers said several officers and howitzer gunners who trained in Latvia were killed or injured in the fighting.

“The enemy’s artillery was working 24/7, and our artillery could do something three or four times a day,” said Olena, a military doctor who declined to give her last name. For safety reasons. “And then he might miss the target. There were problems correcting the fire.

For both sides, air support has mostly been a secondary part of the fighting in the Donbass, if not absent. Both Russia and Ukraine have substantial air defenses in place to the east, meaning most jets and helicopters must fly dangerously low to provide minimal support to ground forces. This left Russian forces firing cruise missiles to target key infrastructure behind the front lines.

In recent days, said the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, its forces have carried out more than a dozen air missions in southern and eastern Ukraine, destroying some Russian equipment. Last week, a Ukrainian Su-24 ground-attack aircraft was seen flying at treetop level towards Lysychansk, a rarity in Donbass.

The report was provided by Richard Perez-Pena and Alexandra E. Petri from New York; Valerie Hopkins, Maria Varenikova and Kamila Hrabchuk from Kyiv; Matthew Mpoke Bigg of London and Natalia Yermak from Lviv, Ukraine.