Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in New York this week for the first direct talks since more than 180 people were reportedly killed last week in fighting between the two countries. The outbreak subsided within days, but the high-level meeting reflects concerns that the causes of the conflict – and the full-scale war that preceded it in 2020 – are far from resolved.
These concerns are compounded by underlying geopolitical tensions. Russia is a longtime protector of Armenia. NATO member Turkey is a key ally of Azerbaijan and has backed it in the 2020 war. And though US diplomats have sought to maintain a mediating role, President Nancy Pelosi has intervened in the middle of the fray last weekend, visiting Armenia to show support and saying the recent violence “was instigated by Azeris”.
The trip was widely seen as a political decision by Ms Pelosi ahead of the midterm elections in November. She was accompanied by Representatives Jackie Speier and Anna G. Eshoo, both Armenian Americans from her home state of California, home to a large Armenian community.
Here’s a guide to what happened in the most recent clashes, what’s behind them, and the potential stakes in the dispute.
The conflict centers on a region that has been disputed for decades.
The mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh has long been at the heart of tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but with a majority Armenian population, it declared independence at the end of the Soviet period.
A year-long war between Armenia and Azerbaijan followed, killing tens of thousands and leaving hundreds of thousands displaced. It ended with a 1994 ceasefire that left Armenia in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts that were legally part of Azerbaijan. During the 2020 war, Azerbaijan – with strong Turkish support, including attack drones – took over much of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts. The death toll has risen to the thousands and tens of thousands have been forced to flee.
A Russian-brokered ceasefire left Azerbaijan with most of the territory, with Armenian forces retreating and heavily armed Russian peacekeepers entering.
Now, analysts say, Azerbaijan is pushing for Armenia to recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and make other concessions.
But the latest outbreak was elsewhere.
Each part has a different story of how the fights started last week.
Armenia said Azerbaijan attacked and 105 of its servicemen were killed and six civilians injured. Azerbaijan said its military actions were “retaliatory measures” in response to Armenia’s provocation, and it reported that 71 of its servicemen had been killed.
Although tensions between the two countries stem from who controls Nagorno-Karabakh, the fighting this time took place directly between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where the border remains undemarcated.
Other details of the latest conflict remain controversial. The United Nations said heavy fighting involving artillery and drones was reported along the international border between the two nations on September 12.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry referred to “an incident” on the “presumed border”, but Armenia said that Azerbaijan had attacked three towns in Armenia itself: Jermuk, Goris and Kapan.
Several analysts have also pointed to the fighting inside Armenia. “It was an Azerbaijani attack in Armenia proper,” said Thomas de Waal, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and author of a book on Nagorno-Karabakh. The International Crisis Group, a research institute, said Azerbaijani troops entered Armenia.
Several Biden administration officials declined to discuss whether Azerbaijani soldiers entered Armenia, although US State Department spokesman Ned Price said early on that the US had seen “significant evidence of Azerbaijani shelling inside Armenia and significant damage to Armenian infrastructure”. .”
On Monday, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said Azerbaijani forces were still inside Armenian territory and should withdraw.
The exact location is important, not least because Armenia is part of a mutual defense alliance led by Russia which, like NATO’s founding treaty, states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. . Many analysts have suggested that Azerbaijan has sought to capitalize on Moscow’s preoccupation with Ukraine after recent war setbacks there, and they have noted a lack of military support for Armenia. from the Kremlin.
Azerbaijan insists on its demands. Armenia is trying to buy time.
One problem is that the peace talks after the 2020 war have yet to come to a resolution.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said he intends to strike a deal, but his domestic opponents have denounced the kind of deal that would be on the table as a betrayal. He has already faced angry protests after the 2020 ceasefire.
Analysts said the Azerbaijani government has three demands: a renunciation by Armenia of its claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, demarcation of the international border on its terms, and security control of a road and rail corridor that remains to be built towards Nakhitchevan, an island of Azerbaijani territory inside Armenia. It would also connect Azerbaijan to Turkey.
Paul Stronski, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said Azerbaijan’s military action amounted to an investigation aimed at changing the facts on the ground wherever possible and putting pressure on Armenia. to negotiate a treaty on its terms.
For Russia and Turkey, this is a delicate situation.
Russia has claimed two roles in this dispute, brokering ceasefire agreements while ensuring Armenia’s security. The former role has so far avoided all of the potential costs of the latter.
Mr Pashinyan spoke by phone to Russian President Vladimir V. Putin when fighting resumed last week, and the Kremlin brokered a quick ceasefire, calling on both sides to stick to the 2020 deal But that initial ceasefire did not hold, leading to the United States using its leverage with both sides to end the fighting. And Mr. Putin did not offer military aid.
Moscow’s ability to project force in the South Caucasus, for example by supplying arms or other military support to Armenia, is limited by its war in Ukraine, according to Arkady Dubnov, a Russian expert on government ties. countries with former soviet republics.
But Moscow could also find its dual role in the South Caucasus more difficult to maintain if the situation becomes more dangerous. In 2020, Stronski said, the line between the two forces was in Armenian-occupied territory inside Azerbaijan. Today, “Armenian and Azerbaijani armies roughly face each other on the still undemarcated state border between the two countries.”
World powers call for peace. But some also need natural gas.
Mr Blinken this week urged both sides to resume negotiations and prevent further hostilities. This is in line with the position of the Minsk group of states, the United States, Russia and France, which have been cautious in assigning blame, according to Stronski. More broadly, Washington has long sought to influence the South Caucasus and other states of the former Soviet empire.
The European Union, meanwhile, has redoubled its efforts for a peace deal since the 2020 war: Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders held peace talks in Brussels in late August under the auspices of a senior EU official. EU, Charles Michel.
But Europe’s position is now complicated by its search for additional supplies of natural gas to offset the loss of Russian imports given the war in Ukraine. In mid-July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Azerbaijan to sign an agreement with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. During the visit, she said Azerbaijan was a “reliable and trustworthy” partner.
The report was provided by Cora Engelbrecht, Carlotta Gall, Anton Troyanovsky, Michael Crowley and Andrew E. Kramer.