Republicans gain lead as voters worry about economy, Times/Siena poll shows

Among likely Hispanic voters, a narrow plurality of 48% disapproved of Mr Biden even as 60% said they would vote for Congressional Democrats this fall – one of the few groups including younger voters who seemed to separate their frustration with the White House from their voting plans.

College was a particularly strong dividing line. Among bachelor’s degree holders, Democrats held a 13-point advantage. Among those without, Republicans held a 15-point advantage.

By taking control of the House in 2018 and winning the Senate and the White House in 2020, the winning Democratic coalition under President Trump relied on a wide gender gap and winning women by a wide margin. .

But the poll showed Republicans had entirely erased what had been an 11-point advantage for Democrats among women last month in the 2022 congressional races to a statistical tie in October.

The survey also tested former President Donald J. Trump’s approval ratings. He had a 52% disapproval rating, better than Mr. Biden’s 58% disapproval rating.

In a hypothetical 2024 rematch, Mr Trump edged Mr Biden in the poll by one percentage point. Among women, Mr. Biden was ahead of Mr. Trump by just four points, compared to the more than 10-point margin that Mr. Biden had in the 2020 election, according to studies of the national electorate for that election.

Today, the nation’s mood is decidedly sour. A strong majority of likely voters, 64%, believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 24% who believe the nation is on the right track. Even the share of likely Democratic voters who think the nation is headed in the right direction has fallen six percentage points since September, although it is above the summer low point.

“Everyone is hurting right now,” said David Neiheisel, a 48-year-old insurance salesman and Republican in Indianapolis. “Inflation, interest rates, the cost of gas, the cost of food, the cost of my property taxes, my utilities – I mean, everything has gone up astronomically and it’s going to get better. collapse.”

The Times/Siena survey of 792 likely voters nationwide was conducted by telephone using live operators from October 9-12, 2022. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The cross tables and the methodology are available here.

Ruth Igienik and Kristen Bayrakdarian contributed report.