As Canada’s population is expected to grow and age over the coming decades amid high immigration and low fertility, experts say these trends have huge implications for our housing and health care needs. health.
A Statistics Canada report released on Monday projects that Canada’s population could reach 47.8 million in 2043 and 56.5 million by 2068 under a medium-growth scenario. Other population projection scenarios indicate that Canada’s population could reach between 44.9 and 74.0 million in 2068.
But the StatCan report noted that this could impact housing availability. Last June, a report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation projected that the country’s housing stock would grow by 2.3 million units over the next decade, but said Canada needed 3, 5 million more affordable homes by 2030.
Mike Moffatt, a professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School and senior director of the Smart Prosperity Institute, says the report shows Canada’s housing supply “is not enough to keep up with population growth.”
“I definitely think we should be able to plan for this level of growth that we know is coming. It’s absolutely going to be a challenge to house that many people,” he told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview. Wednesday. “We need to make sure we’re building homes at all price points to accommodate a growing population.”
StatCan projections predict that growth will be unevenly distributed across the country. Alberta is expected to experience the fastest growth in the country, as the province’s population in 2043 is expected to be 31-61% larger than it is today. In some scenarios, Wildrose Province is expected to have a larger population than British Columbia
“Alberta has done a pretty good job of building enough housing for a growing population. Alberta has grown quite rapidly over the past few decades and they have been able to maintain housing supply. There have been issues related to land use and environmental issues. , but just from a numbers perspective, they managed to do it,” Moffatt said.
According to the analysis, population growth in British Columbia, Ontario and Saskatchewan is expected to be around 14-40% by 2043. Manitoba’s population is expected to grow by 11-40%, while Quebec’s population is expected to grow by 12 to 19%.
Moffatt believes Ontario and British Columbia are the least prepared for the impending growth, given that housing shortages are most severe in those two provinces.
“I think most provinces shouldn’t have too much trouble adjusting to this (population growth). Ontario and BC in particular would be of concern to me.” said Moffat.
Meanwhile, the population of Atlantic Canada could drop by 1.5% or increase by up to 16% by 2043, according to the report. Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province projected to experience negative population growth in all projection scenarios. Population growth in the territories is expected to be around 8-28%.
MORE THAN A QUARTER OF CANADIANS WILL BE 65 OR OLDER IN 2068
Currently, 18.5% of Canadians are aged 65 and over. But in a medium growth scenario, StatCan predicts that the proportion of seniors will increase to 23.1% in 2043 and 25.9% in 2068.
The average age in Canada was 41.7 in 2021, but by 2068 it is expected to rise to 45.1.
While Canada’s population is growing, StatCan says the national fertility rate hit an all-time low of 1.4 in 2020 and is expected to decline in coming years. Instead, immigration has been the main driver of population growth, but Statistics Canada notes that immigration “is unable to significantly increase the proportion of young people in the population.”
Experts say these numbers underscore the need to ensure federal and provincial governments have a plan to meet the health care needs of the aging population.
“There’s nothing sudden about it. So the notion of planning for an aging population is clearly possible because it’s a glacial progression,” said University of Victoria sociology professor Susan McDaniel. to CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Wednesday.
“What we need are better systems for managing chronic conditions – things like arthritis that don’t require hospitalization, but can lead to mobility issues, sometimes minor, sometimes major,” he said. -she adds.
According to a 2018 report by the Conference Board of Canada, Canada’s aging population will add $93 billion to provincial health care costs. It also costs the public health care system $12,000 a year to meet the health care needs of the average senior, compared to $2,700 for the rest of the population, according to the report.
Dr. Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto, notes that when Canada’s universal health care system was born in 1966, the average age and life expectancy in Canada were much younger.
“In 1966, the average Canadian was about 27 years old, and most Canadians didn’t live beyond their 60s,” he told CTVNews.ca on Wednesday by phone. “We have designed our modern health care system largely around the needs of a much younger population.”
“Other forms of care like drugs or PharmaCare, dental care, home care, and…long-term care — all of those things were not included in our overall healthcare system. And as you know , if you don’t have these services properly covered and available, that means people are really depending on their doctors or care in hospitals,” Sinha added.