Tropical Storm Julia formed Friday morning in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and is expected to develop into a hurricane this weekend as it hits the Colombian islands of San Andrés and Providencia and the coast Nicaragua, forecasters said.
The storm was about 110 miles west of the Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. advisory. The Colombian government issued a hurricane warning for the islands of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina, meaning hurricane conditions were expected in about 36 hours.
The Nicaraguan government issued a hurricane watch, meaning a hurricane was possible within 48 hours from Bluefields to the border with Honduras. The Honduran government also told residents to prepare for the powerful storm, issuing a tropical storm watch extending west of the border with Nicaragua.
A storm is given a name after it reaches wind speeds of at least 39 mph. Julia had strengthened since Friday morning from a tropical depression as it moved west.
Forecasters said the storm is expected to grow stronger and become a hurricane before reaching the Colombian islands of San Andrés and Providencia on Saturday evening and the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.
Heavy rains could trigger flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America, which could receive five to 10 inches of rain, and up to 15 inches in isolated areas, the Hurricane Center said.
In early August, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an updated forecast for the rest of the season, which still predicted an above-normal level of activity. In it, they predicted the season – which runs through November 30 – could see 14 to 20 named storms, with six to 10 developing into hurricanes that sustain winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Three to five of them could become what NOAA calls major hurricanes – Category 3 or higher – with winds of at least 111 mph
Last year there were 21 named storms, after a record 30 in 2020. Over the past two years, meteorologists have exhausted the list of names used to identify storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. , an event that only happened once. , in 2005.
The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming clearer every year. Data shows that hurricanes have become stronger around the world over the past four decades. A warming planet can expect stronger hurricanes over time and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms – although the total number of storms may drop as factors such as wind shear stronger could prevent the formation of weaker storms.
Hurricanes also become wetter due to more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested that storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without human effects on the climate. Also, sea level rise contributes to higher storm surge – the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.