Nathan News

EASTPONE, Mich. — The conversation started with potholes.

Veronica Klinefelt, a Democratic candidate for the state Senate in suburban Detroit, was knocking on doors as she tried to win a seat her party sees as key to retaking the chamber. “I’m tired of seeing cuts in aging communities like ours,” she told a constituent, pointing to a cul-de-sac riddled with cracks and crevices. “We need to reinvest here.”

What has remained largely unspoken, however, is how this obscure landrace has significant implications for the future of American democracy.

The fight for Michigan’s Senate, along with jostling for control of several other tightly-divided chambers in battleground states, has grown out of proportion at a time of increasingly powerful state legislatures. With Congress often deadlocked and conservatives dominating the Supreme Court, state governments are increasingly steering the direction of ballot laws, abortion access, gun policy, public health, education and other issues that dominate the lives of Americans.

The Supreme Court may soon add federal elections to this list.

Judges are supposed to decide whether to grant nearly unlimited authority over such elections to state legislatures – a legal argument known as the independent state legislature theory. If the court does, many Democrats believe, state legislatures could have a avenue to nullify the popular vote in presidential elections by refusing to certify the results and instead sending their own voters lists.

While it may seem like a doomsday scenario, 44% of Republicans in crucial swing state legislatures have used the power of their office to discredit or attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, according to a New York Times analysis. . More like-minded GOP candidates on the ballot could soon join them in office.

Republicans have full control over state legislatures that have a total of 307 electoral votes — 37 more than needed to win a presidential election. They hold majorities in several battleground states, meaning that if the Supreme Court approves the legal theory, a close presidential election could be overturned if only a few states award alternative voter slates.

The Democrats’ chances of bringing the Republican total below 270 are slim: they are expected to flip the Michigan Senate or the Arizona Senate, then a chamber in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in 2024, in addition to defending the chambers that the party currently controls.

Democrats and Republicans have set their sights on half a dozen states where state legislatures — or at least a single chamber — could swing in November. The Democrats hope to reclaim one of the Michigan and Arizona Senate chambers, and overthrow the Minnesota Senate. Republicans are aiming to win back the Minnesota House of Representatives and take control of one or both chambers in the Maine, Colorado and Nevada legislatures. They are also targeting Oregon and Washington.

An avalanche of money flowed into these races. The Republican State Leadership Committee, the party’s campaign arm for state legislatures, has consistently set new fundraising records, raising $71 million this cycle. The group’s Democratic counterpart also broke fundraising records, raising $45 million. Outside groups have also spent heavily: The States Project, a Democratic super PAC, has pledged to invest nearly $60 million in five states.

The television airwaves, rarely a place where state legislative candidates go to war, have been flooded with race advertising. More than $100 million has been spent nationwide since July, an increase of $20 million from the same period in 2020, according to AdImpact, a media monitoring company.

Democrats find, however, that motivating voters on such an esoteric issue as the theory of an independent state legislature is no easy task.

“Voters care a lot about a functioning democracy,” said Daniel Squadron, a former Democratic senator from New York state and founder of the States Project. But, he said, the state’s independent legislature “the threat always seems to be on the horizon, even if it’s upon us.”

For some Republicans, the issue of the independent state legislature theory is far from the campaign trail and far from their concerns.

“If it’s a Supreme Court decision, based on their legal opinion, I would defer to their legal expertise,” said Michael D. MacDonald, the Republican state senator who faces Ms. Klinefelt. “I certainly respect the court’s opinion when it does. I think it’s important that we do that.

Instead, Republicans focus on economic topics like inflation.

“The economy remains the issue voters most care about in their daily lives, and it’s the issue that will decide the battle for state legislatures in November,” said Andrew Romeo, director of communications for Republican State Leadership. Committee. The group’s internal polls show that inflation and the cost of living are the number one priority in every state surveyed.

The issues defining each election vary widely from district to district. Some of them, like roads, school funding, and water, are hyperlocal — topics that rarely drive a congressional or statewide race.

In suburban Detroit, MacDonald said he heard the same concerns.

“When they have something to say, it’s never ‘Joe Biden’ or ‘Donald Trump’, it’s ‘Hey, you know, actually my road, it’s a little bumpy, what can you do ?'” Mr MacDonald said. He added: “Sometimes it can be as small as, ‘Can they get a bin from our garbage contractor? “”

His speech to voters, in turn, focuses on the money Macomb County, which makes up much of the district, has received from the state budget since being elected four years ago.

In Saginaw, a town that sits at the thumb joint of Michigan’s famous mitten shape, Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat who is running in a fiercely competitive race for the state Senate, was clear about the issues that motivate his competition.

“Very few people talk to you about the state of democracy,” she told volunteers and staff at the Saginaw County Democratic Party headquarters on Wednesday as they prepared for an afternoon to knock on doors. “What they’re going to tell you about is that there aren’t really any high-paying jobs here. And there isn’t. Seventy-five percent of jobs in the region are low-wage. And that’s a big problem in Saginaw Township. We have a lot of unionized workers.

Mrs. McDonald Rivet met a union worker, Steve, who declined to give his last name, as she was walking through a dense suburban neighborhood. They talked about Jobs and his experience in education politics, and lamented the divisiveness of modern politics. He pledged to vote for her.

The race in the Saginaw area has drawn intense statewide and national attention. On Wednesday, there was barely an empty seat at a candidates’ forum attended by Ms. McDonald Rivet and her Republican opponent, Annette Glenn, a current state representative, and hosted by the League of Women Voters.

Ms. Glenn, who took office in 2019, introduced herself as a bipartisan presence in Lansing and spoke about education, the economy and crime.

“We want to make sure that not only my children, but also your children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren have the same opportunities throughout the district,” she said. “I also want to make sure they can safely walk to school every day.”

The debate was largely polite, although it became contentious over the 2020 election. When the moderator asked Ms Glenn if she believed President Biden had won, she veered off course, spending her entire two minutes to discuss “concerns” about the competition.

Ms. McDonald Rivet’s turn to respond, she returned to Ms. Glenn, demanding an answer. Ms. Glenn paused, smiled, and dodged the question again, albeit a little more deftly.

“Any time you put gas in your car and look at gas prices, I can guarantee you that Joe Biden is the president,” she said.

While Republicans focus on the economy, Democrats hope the backlash from the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade can also help their party in state legislative races.

“Where are you on a woman’s right to choose?” a man named Mike asked Darrin Camilleri, a Democratic state Rep. candidate for the state Senate in the southeastern suburbs of Detroit, as the lawmaker stood on his front porch.

“Well, I’m pro-choice,” Mr. Camilleri replied, “and very proudly…”

Mike cut it off. “Well, you get my vote then,” he said. “Easy enough.”

As he walked down the aisle, Mr. Camilleri remarked, “It happens all the time. All the time.”

The national pressure of the showdown for the Michigan Senate weighed on some of the candidates, many of whom did not expect the spotlight of national media coverage or the weight of the democracy issue to define their campaigns. of autumn.

After driving an entire street, Ms. Klinefelt leaned against the hood of her car, resting a leather boot against the fender.

“No one will care or remember who Veronica Klinefelt is in 20 years,” she said. “I’m talking about that. But what they will remember is what happened during this period. If democracy in small d changes radically, they will never forget it. And so if I fail, and because of that we don’t have protection in the Legislative Assembly, that’s something I’ll carry with me for the rest of my life.