* Key caveat: In a hypothetical world where Trump doesn’t run.
The DeSantis Buzz
On paper, DeSantis has a lot going for him.
The state of the 2022 midterm elections
With the primaries over, both parties are focused on the November 8 general election.
He has amassed a campaign treasure worthy of Smaug, the dragon from “The Hobbit”. A stocky former college baseball player and an officer in the Navy’s Judge Advocate General’s Corps, he projects the kind of force that works well in Republican politics. And he emerged from the pandemic strengthened, at least on the right, by the perception that he navigated the coronavirus relatively well in defiance of experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci.
In polls, DeSantis is consistently ranked as the second choice of Republican voters, behind Trump but well ahead of all his putative rivals. And in focus groups, voters often describe him as “Trump without the baggage,” according to Sarah Longwell, a GOP strategist who opposes Trump.
Like Walker, however, DeSantis risks peaking too soon. Walker’s operation made a strategic mistake early on by parking much of its money in a 527 committee, a tax-exempt organization that was barred from some campaign activities. When the money dried up in the summer of 2015, his official campaign struggled to pay for the vast apparatus he had built in anticipation of greater fundraising success.
The early enthusiasm of Republican voters (and pundits!) for shiny objects is also an age-old tradition. Do you remember Marco Rubio, the “republican saviour”? Rand Paul, “the most interesting man in politics”? Rick Perry, the hot stuff of early 2012 hustings? And it remains to be seen whether DeSantis, a wooden speaker with a reputation for burning his staff, has the personal skills to go the distance.
In interviews, Republican strategists and donors have said DeSantis appears to be in a strong position for 2024. His home in Florida gives him access to a deep-pocketed donor community that Walker lacked, many noted. He has gained allies in the community of right-wing political influencers. And his ability to appeal to both the Trump and Mitch McConnell wings of the party gives him leeway in a Republican Party divided between two mutually hostile camps.
But everyone I interviewed stressed that anything could happen. Several mentioned that they expect Trump to avoid announcing re-election for as long as possible – freezing the potential GOP field in place and, perhaps, crippling any fledgling campaign organizations they hope to build. .