And unlike any season this writer can remember, the Bills are – by many estimates – one of the favorites to win it all. Last night’s performance was so dominant that Buffalo may have increased its chances of bringing home the Super Bowl by over 50%.
Still, at this early point in the season, we should be clear on what “preferred” means: bringing home the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year isn’t all that likely – much to my chagrin. But even if the Bills don’t ultimately take home the ultimate prize, it’s obvious they’re gaining fans thanks to their newfound success.
For example, take a look at FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratings to understand the odds. The Bills went into the night with a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl; They left the night with a 16% chance of winning.
Before the game against the Rams, the Bills had plenty of close company over who was most likely to win the Super Bowl. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Rams rounded out the top spot with a 7% to 9% chance each.
The combined chance of the teams with the second and third best chances of winning it all was nearly double (18%) the Bills’ chance of getting into the season. The morning after their resounding victory, the Bills’ odds of winning are almost the same as the next two closest teams.
Put another way, the Bills have been the weakest preseason favorite of any FiveThirtyEight favorite since they started making predictions in 2015. Now the Bills are stronger favorites than any preseason favorite — except for the 2017 New England Patriots, who ended up losing the Super Bowl to the Philadelphia Eagles, 41-33.
All in all, 16% is just 16%. There is an 84% chance that any team other than the Bills will take home the Lombardi Trophy – the Las Vegas betting lines match the Bills odds.
Based on these stats, it would be far more surprising if the Bills won the Super Bowl than if they didn’t. The Bills have about the same chance of rolling a 6 when rolling a six-sided die. It can happen – we’ve all seen it – but it’s not likely.
My pessimism here about the Bills’ chances may come as a surprise, as those who know me know I’m a Bills fan. It could be that I just can’t believe they’re going to win. Maybe it’s because I’ve been hurt too many times.
After all, this is a Bills team that lost to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Divisional Game after kicking off with 13 seconds left and leading. That was only the second time a team had started 20 seconds or less on the clock and lost a playoff game in over 300 games since 1994. The other team? The Buffalo Bills from 1999 to 2000, which made the so-called Music City Miracle possible.
On the other hand, things are different than in the past for the Bills. Perhaps they’re as good as they’ve ever been in their entire franchise history.
Regardless of whether they win or lose this year, there will be a lot more fans coming along. A look at Google searches in August shows that the Bills were the 12th most searched team in the country.
They drew in a little less than half the prospects of the leading team: the Dallas Cowboys. The Bills were the most wanted team only in their home state of New York.
That placement doesn’t seem like a good result for the Bills. Keep in mind, however, that Buffalo is the smallest media market for any NFL franchise (while Green Bay is smaller, count Milwaukee in the Packers’ home market). The Bills don’t start with a large natural base like the so-called “America’s Team.”
Additionally, the Bills have made strides ahead of the 2017 season compared to five years ago. The Bills had not been in the playoffs since the 1999-00 season at this point. The old joke I used to make—which happened to be true at the time—is that the Bills haven’t made the playoffs since my bar mitzvah.
At the time, the Bills ranked 23rd out of 32 teams in Google searches and had less than a fifth as many searches as the Cowboys.
The move the Bills have made is a sign that winning gets you more fan attention; We see that in other teams too. The biggest move has come from the Chiefs, who have made it to at least the Conference Championship for the past four seasons. Likewise, the 49ers have gone from being one of the worst teams to being one of the best and have seen a major upsurge in search interest.
We see this in other metrics as well. During the 2017 season, the Bills only had one regular season game watched by all or most parts of the country. At least seven Bills games will be watched by all or most parts of the country this season. You don’t put a team on national television if you don’t think people will be interested in watching.
Maybe the big question is what happens if the Bills make it this year?
Maybe – just maybe – the team from the smallest media market in the USA will become the new America team… and I can live with that.
