With the Senate tied 50-50 for each party, Republican control is just one seat away. But this election season has been full of surprises.
For much of the campaign season, Democrats looked set to grab a Republican seat in Pennsylvania, meaning Republicans would have to flip two Democratic seats to secure a majority. But recent fumbles by Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona have made it harder to find those two winnable races.
Here are the seats where each party is vulnerable.
Cook Political Report Race Ranking
for current Senate seats
Republicans
Currently holds 50 seats, need 51 for majority
Democrats
Currently holds majority with 50 seats (Vice President casts deciding vote)
Republicans not ready re-election
Solid R
Probably R
Lean R
Throw in the air
Democrats not ready re-election
Solid D
Lean D
Throw in the air
Pennsylvania
WI
Florida
CN
OH
Utah
AK
AL
AR
AI
IDENTIFIER
IN
KS
KY
THE
MO
n/a
OKAY
OKAY
CS
South Dakota
AK
AL
AR
Florida
AI
IDENTIFIER
IN
KS
KY
THE
ME
MO
MRS
MRS
MT
CN
n/a
NOT
NOT
CS
South Dakota
NT
NT
TX
TX
Utah
VM
Wyoming
Wyoming
Georgia
NV
A-Z
CO
NH
California
CT
HELLO
HE
MARYLAND
New York
WHERE
Vermont
Washington
A-Z
California
CO
CT
OF
OF
Georgia
HELLO
HE
MY
MY
MARYLAND
ME
MID
MID
MN
MN
MT
NH
New Jersey
New Jersey
NM
NM
NV
New York
OH
WHERE
Pennsylvania
IR
IR
Virginia
Virginia
Vermont
Washington
WI
VM
Republicans not ready re-election
Democrats not ready re-election
Cook Political Report still views the contest as a draw, but the new allegations have given Mr Warnock an edge and put Mr Walker on the defensive.
A Democratic seat Arizona may have been vulnerable at some point. But the enduring popularity of incumbent Mark Kelly and the faltering campaign of challenger Blake Masters could put him out of reach for Republicans.
But his Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general, lost his bid for governor in 2018 and has yet to open a clear lead.
His opponent, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, suffered a life-threatening stroke that gave Dr. Oz an opening. The obvious effects of the stroke and the Republican’s attacks on Mr. Fetterman as a liberal coddling criminals narrowed the race.
Democrats had high hopes of unseating the Republican senator from Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, six years ago and were stunned by his relatively easy re-election. Since then, Mr Johnson has become the main Senate peddler of conspiracy theories and disinformation about Covid-19, but he is holding his own against Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who comes from the liberal wing of the United States. Democrats and has proven vulnerable to attack, especially on crime.
Cheri Beasley, former chief justice of the Supreme Court of North Carolina, is standing as a judge above the political fray. North Carolina is a state that has broken the hearts of Democrats, and it may well do so again. But Mr. Budd and Ms. Beasley consistently vote in a tie.
Despite the challenges ahead, Republicans still have plenty of ways to win control of the Senate. They could beat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and push Sen. Raphael Warnock to a runoff in Georgia. They could overwhelm the race in Georgia with money to save Mr. Warnock’s opponent, Herschel Walker. They could also pick up a victory from behind in Pennsylvania.
But Democrats also have options. If they can seal a win in Pennsylvania and defeat Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, it’s hard to see a way for Republicans to win three Democratic seats to make up for it.