Nathan News

At this point, this year’s midterm campaign has focused on a big question: Can Democrats defy political gravity and overcome the long history of beatings inflicted on the president’s party?

After months of showing Democrats performing just fine for a midterm year, polls are now offering pretty strong evidence that the party can’t overcome political gravity — at least not entirely. Democrats are brought down to earth.

Now the question is whether Democrats can survive the landing — particularly in the Senate, but also in much of the Democratic-leaning House districts.

Looking back, the political gravity began to reassert itself several weeks ago. After Labor Day, polls suggested Republican gains in key Senate races where Democrats had shown significant summer strength. President Biden’s approval rating has stopped rising. Then, the supportive media environment that seemed to give the Democrats an opportunity faded, perhaps largely due to bad inflation news and a falling stock market.

All it took was letting Republicans regain the lead in the generic Congressional ballot, in which voters are asked whether they will back the Democrats or Republicans for Congress. On average, Republicans have led by two to three percentage points nationally in polls of registered or likely voters released over the past week or so — with Republicans faring even better among likely voters than polls of registered voters do not imply it.

Of course, the voters – not the polls – will have the final say on all of these issues. As such, we spend a lot of time reviewing the risks of survey error in this newsletter. But for this post, let’s imagine that the polls are exactly right about the national political environment. If so, the race is in a very delicate situation. Everything from a Democratic sway in the Senate and a narrow majority in the House to an outright Republican rout becomes imaginable.

Why the wide range of possibilities? On the one hand, a Republican lead of two or three points is not incompatible with a Democratic grip on the Senate. It’s a tough environment for Democrats in battleground states, but it’s likely viable for strong Democratic candidates against weak Republicans.

Indeed, Democrats are still leading Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia, which would be enough for them to retain the chamber. It would be a mistake to dismiss these races as anything other than draws in this environment, especially with polls tilting toward Republicans (with the exception of Georgia). The point is simply that it remains entirely possible for the Democrats to maintain control.

On the other hand, a two or three point lead would also open the door to a Republican rout. To start with simple things: it would be easy for the Republicans to win a victory in Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia, and take the Senate. But it would also be easy for Republicans to make big gains in the House — much easier than people think.

Consider, for example, that a three-point Republican lead on the generic ballot is seven percentage points better for Republicans than Mr. Biden’s four-point national victory in 2020. If every district finished this far at Right of the presidential election result, Republicans would walk away with 259 districts — a gain of nearly 50 seats and the largest Republican majority since the Great Depression.

Of course, many of those districts have Democratic incumbents, who should be stronger than the national environment suggests. As with key Senate races, this is a national survival environment for Democrats in such races, even if they are vulnerable. I wouldn’t expect the Democrats to lose so many seats. But just as it’s simply a survival environment for many Democrats, it’s an environment full of opportunity for just as many Republicans.

These Republican opportunities are very real. There are alarming polls for House Democrats in places like Rhode Island’s second district and Oregon’s sixth. Mr. Biden won the double digits, but now the Republicans appear to be competitive or ahead. This kind of warning sign rarely occurs in isolation. In fact, there is further evidence of Democratic softness in the polls in New York, Washington and Oregon, where Democrats are generally still clearly ahead, but with narrow double-digit or even single-digit margins that match their vulnerability in districts like blue (but-not-quite-so-blue) Oregon 6.

In other words, this range of a two- or three-point Republican environment is potentially consistent with anything from a Democratic Senate win to something that starts to look a lot like a Republican rout.

And that leaves out the possibility that polls are generally missing by at least a modest amount. If the national environment is a few points better for Republicans than these numbers, the prospect of a Republican landslide quickly begins to look plausible. If the environment is better for Democrats, they will look surprisingly resilient for a midterm year, even if the outcome would fall short of their summer hopes of fully defying gravity.

With just two weeks to go, we are running out of time for the polls to swing decisively one way or the other. If so, we are heading into a very uncertain election night.